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SPC MD 188
MD 0188 CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SRN FL PENINSULA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0188 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1249 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 120649Z - 120815Z THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 2.0-2.5 INCHES. A SWD-MOVING WIND SHIFT OBSERVED IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY HAS RECENTLY LED TO THE SOLIDIFICATION OF A ZONALLY ORIENTED BAND OF Read more
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0188 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1249 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 120649Z - 120815Z THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 2.0-2.5 INCHES. A SWD-MOVING WIND SHIFT OBSERVED IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY HAS RECENTLY LED TO THE SOLIDIFICATION OF A ZONALLY ORIENTED BAND OF Read more
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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 30
WW 30 SEVERE TSTM AL MS 120545Z - 121100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 30 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN ALABAMA CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1145 PM UNTIL 500 AM CST. HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI TO 50 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF COLUMBUS MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ALONG A SURFACE FRONT OVER CENTRAL MS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOWARD NORTHWEST AL. INSTABILITY IS WEAK...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A FEW INTENSE UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. Read more
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 30 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN ALABAMA CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1145 PM UNTIL 500 AM CST. HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI TO 50 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF COLUMBUS MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ALONG A SURFACE FRONT OVER CENTRAL MS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOWARD NORTHWEST AL. INSTABILITY IS WEAK...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A FEW INTENSE UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. Read more
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri Mar 12 06:28:01 UTC 2010
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Mar 12 06:28:01 UTC 2010.
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SPC Mar 12, 2010 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1204 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AS THE UPSTREAM PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A SPLITTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU BY 12Z SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A LARGE CLOSED LOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD...MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENTS OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW. ONE OF THESE PERTURBATIONS APPEARS LIKELY TO BE Read more
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1204 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AS THE UPSTREAM PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A SPLITTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU BY 12Z SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A LARGE CLOSED LOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD...MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENTS OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW. ONE OF THESE PERTURBATIONS APPEARS LIKELY TO BE Read more
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SPC Mar 12, 2010 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SERN STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL REMAIN DOMINANT FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD. THE LOW WILL ADVANCE EAST WHILE A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATE AROUND ITS CENTER. VORT MAX NOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL TURN NWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH AN IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF AND FL PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM AN OCCLUDED LOW OVER Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SERN STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL REMAIN DOMINANT FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD. THE LOW WILL ADVANCE EAST WHILE A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATE AROUND ITS CENTER. VORT MAX NOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL TURN NWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH AN IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF AND FL PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM AN OCCLUDED LOW OVER Read more
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Mar 12 04:42:02 UTC 2010
No watches are valid as of Fri Mar 12 04:42:02 UTC 2010.
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SPC MD 187
MD 0187 CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SRN FL PENINSULA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0187 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1010 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 120410Z - 120545Z THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 2.0-2.5 INCHES. A SWD-MOVING WIND SHIFT OBSERVED IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY HAS RECENTLY LED TO THE SOLIDIFICATION OF A ZONALLY ORIENTED BAND OF Read more
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0187 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1010 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 120410Z - 120545Z THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 2.0-2.5 INCHES. A SWD-MOVING WIND SHIFT OBSERVED IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY HAS RECENTLY LED TO THE SOLIDIFICATION OF A ZONALLY ORIENTED BAND OF Read more
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SPC Mar 12, 2010 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...S FL... EVENING RAOB DATA INDICATE MODEST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF FL. RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS IN PLACE WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN A SKINNY CAPE THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE CONVECTIVE LAYER. STORMS OVER THE SRN Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...S FL... EVENING RAOB DATA INDICATE MODEST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF FL. RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS IN PLACE WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN A SKINNY CAPE THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE CONVECTIVE LAYER. STORMS OVER THE SRN Read more
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SPC MD 186
MD 0186 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR SERN TX INTO CNTRL LA AND SWRN MS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0186 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0454 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN TX INTO CNTRL LA AND SWRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 112254Z - 120000Z THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING Read more
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0186 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0454 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN TX INTO CNTRL LA AND SWRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 112254Z - 120000Z THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING Read more
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Thu Mar 11 22:17:06 UTC 2010
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Mar 11 22:17:06 UTC 2010.
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SPC Tornado Watch 29
WW 29 TORNADO FL CW 111600Z - 112300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 29 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1100 AM EST THU MAR 11 2010 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MUCH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1100 AM UNTIL 600 PM EST. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF SAINT PETERSBURG FLORIDA TO 30 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...STRONG/VEERING SHEAR PROFILES COUPLED WITH A MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT MOVING EWD OFF GULF ACROSS CENTRAL FL. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND Read more
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 29 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1100 AM EST THU MAR 11 2010 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MUCH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1100 AM UNTIL 600 PM EST. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF SAINT PETERSBURG FLORIDA TO 30 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...STRONG/VEERING SHEAR PROFILES COUPLED WITH A MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT MOVING EWD OFF GULF ACROSS CENTRAL FL. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND Read more
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SPC MD 185
MD 0185 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 29... FOR SERN FL PENINSULA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0185 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 29... VALID 112045Z - 112145Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 29 CONTINUES. ...TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN FL PENINSULA...JUST SOUTH OF WW29... Read more
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0185 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 29... VALID 112045Z - 112145Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 29 CONTINUES. ...TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN FL PENINSULA...JUST SOUTH OF WW29... Read more
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SPC Mar 11, 2010 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0202 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY FOR LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... ...CENTRAL AND SRN FL... SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SWD SOME TO REMOVE PART OF THE NERN FL PENINSULA...GIVEN THE SLOW SWD SHIFT OF THE MORE VIGOROUS BAND OF TSTMS NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...FORECAST FOR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA AND ADDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST WATCHES AND MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SUCH AS # 183 ISSUED AT 1913Z/ FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION FOR THIS SLIGHT RISK AREA. ...LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS LATE... SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO COVER MORE OF WRN AL AND SRN MS FOR LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TIME PERIOD. 12Z ECMWF/15Z SREF BOTH INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO AFFECT AREAS A LITTLE FARTHER S AS WELL AS THE AREA ALREADY IN THE SLIGHT RISK. ...NRN/ERN IL AND IND... MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE PROBABILITY LINES FOR THIS REGION GIVEN ENEWD TREND OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. FOR ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE DETAILS AND ATTENDANT LOW END RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...PLEASE REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #184. ..PETERS.. 03/11/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST THU MAR 11 2010/ ...SYNOPSIS... FINAL IN SERIES OF VIGOROUS TROUGHS CURRENTLY SRN NM/TX BIG BEND WILL MOVE TO LOWER MS VALLEY BY 12Z FRI AS OCCLUDED LOW OVER WRN IA GRADUALLY FILLS AND REMAINS QUASI STATIONARY. ADDITIONALLY AN UNUSUALLY STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS NRN GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING STRONG SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS NERN GULF AND FL IN THE EXIT REGION. ...FL... ACTIVE MCS OVER NERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AM WITH STRONG MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0202 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY FOR LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... ...CENTRAL AND SRN FL... SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SWD SOME TO REMOVE PART OF THE NERN FL PENINSULA...GIVEN THE SLOW SWD SHIFT OF THE MORE VIGOROUS BAND OF TSTMS NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...FORECAST FOR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA AND ADDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST WATCHES AND MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SUCH AS # 183 ISSUED AT 1913Z/ FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION FOR THIS SLIGHT RISK AREA. ...LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS LATE... SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO COVER MORE OF WRN AL AND SRN MS FOR LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TIME PERIOD. 12Z ECMWF/15Z SREF BOTH INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO AFFECT AREAS A LITTLE FARTHER S AS WELL AS THE AREA ALREADY IN THE SLIGHT RISK. ...NRN/ERN IL AND IND... MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE PROBABILITY LINES FOR THIS REGION GIVEN ENEWD TREND OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. FOR ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE DETAILS AND ATTENDANT LOW END RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...PLEASE REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #184. ..PETERS.. 03/11/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST THU MAR 11 2010/ ...SYNOPSIS... FINAL IN SERIES OF VIGOROUS TROUGHS CURRENTLY SRN NM/TX BIG BEND WILL MOVE TO LOWER MS VALLEY BY 12Z FRI AS OCCLUDED LOW OVER WRN IA GRADUALLY FILLS AND REMAINS QUASI STATIONARY. ADDITIONALLY AN UNUSUALLY STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS NRN GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING STRONG SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS NERN GULF AND FL IN THE EXIT REGION. ...FL... ACTIVE MCS OVER NERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AM WITH STRONG MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER Read more
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SPC MD 184
MD 0184 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WRN IND...FAR ERN IL
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0184 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0156 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN IND...FAR ERN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 111956Z - 112130Z A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD EXIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN IND. A WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY ATTM. TSTM INITIATION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS W-CNTRL IND INVOF OF BMG/HUF Read more
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0184 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0156 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN IND...FAR ERN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 111956Z - 112130Z A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD EXIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN IND. A WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY ATTM. TSTM INITIATION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS W-CNTRL IND INVOF OF BMG/HUF Read more
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SPC MD 183
MD 0183 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 29... FOR CENTRAL FL PENINSULA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0183 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 29... VALID 111913Z - 112015Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 29 CONTINUES. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A WEAK MESO LOW IS RIPPLING EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR SUMTER COUNTY IN THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE WILL SOON BE DISPLACED OFF THE EAST COAST AS LLJ REFOCUSES Read more
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0183 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 29... VALID 111913Z - 112015Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 29 CONTINUES. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A WEAK MESO LOW IS RIPPLING EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR SUMTER COUNTY IN THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE WILL SOON BE DISPLACED OFF THE EAST COAST AS LLJ REFOCUSES Read more
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