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SPC Nov 22, 2009 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST... SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY JUST S OF THE LA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND TO OVER SERN MS BY 22/12Z. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT /NOW 50-100 NM S OF THE MS/AL/FL PNHDL COASTS/ WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH TSTMS CONCURRENTLY MOVING/DEVELOPING NWD/NEWD WITHIN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. THE MAJORITY OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION WITH ANY MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST... SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY JUST S OF THE LA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND TO OVER SERN MS BY 22/12Z. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT /NOW 50-100 NM S OF THE MS/AL/FL PNHDL COASTS/ WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH TSTMS CONCURRENTLY MOVING/DEVELOPING NWD/NEWD WITHIN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. THE MAJORITY OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION WITH ANY MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT Read more
SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun Nov 22 00:50:03 UTC 2009
No watches are valid as of Sun Nov 22 00:50:03 UTC 2009.
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sun Nov 22 00:50:03 UTC 2009
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Nov 22 00:50:03 UTC 2009.
SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Nov 21 21:18:06 UTC 2009
No watches are valid as of Sat Nov 21 21:18:06 UTC 2009.
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sat Nov 21 21:18:06 UTC 2009
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Nov 21 21:18:06 UTC 2009.
SPC Nov 21, 2009 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0145 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN LA... EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER SERN LA...BOOSTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...ENELY SURFACE TRAJECTORIES ARE MAINTAINING MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS LOWER-MID 50S/ OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE...THUS FAR...BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SERN LA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS HAD FORMED SINCE THIS MORNING IN THE Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0145 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN LA... EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER SERN LA...BOOSTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...ENELY SURFACE TRAJECTORIES ARE MAINTAINING MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS LOWER-MID 50S/ OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE...THUS FAR...BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SERN LA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS HAD FORMED SINCE THIS MORNING IN THE Read more
SPC Nov 21, 2009 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0145 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN LA... EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER SERN LA...BOOSTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...ENELY SURFACE TRAJECTORIES ARE MAINTAINING MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS LOWER-MID 50S/ OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE...THUS FAR...BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SERN LA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS HAD FORMED SINCE THIS MORNING IN THE Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0145 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN LA... EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER SERN LA...BOOSTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...ENELY SURFACE TRAJECTORIES ARE MAINTAINING MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS LOWER-MID 50S/ OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE...THUS FAR...BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SERN LA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS HAD FORMED SINCE THIS MORNING IN THE Read more
SPC Nov 21, 2009 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0145 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN LA... EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER SERN LA...BOOSTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...ENELY SURFACE TRAJECTORIES ARE MAINTAINING MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS LOWER-MID 50S/ OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE...THUS FAR...BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SERN LA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS HAD FORMED SINCE THIS MORNING IN THE Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0145 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN LA... EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER SERN LA...BOOSTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...ENELY SURFACE TRAJECTORIES ARE MAINTAINING MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS LOWER-MID 50S/ OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE...THUS FAR...BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SERN LA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS HAD FORMED SINCE THIS MORNING IN THE Read more
SPC Nov 21, 2009 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH SRN TX/NWRN GULF OF MEXICO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL DEAMPLIFY SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS. AN OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW AND TRIPLE POINT LOCATED ALONG THE MS DELTA AND CENTRAL GULF COAST... RESPECTIVELY...AT 12Z SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. AS THIS PROCESS OCCURS...A NEW SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST /E OF GA/. MEANWHILE...GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE SERN STATES WITH THE NEWD TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT RESIDING FROM NWRN FL TO SERN GA SHOULD REMAIN Read more
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH SRN TX/NWRN GULF OF MEXICO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL DEAMPLIFY SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS. AN OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW AND TRIPLE POINT LOCATED ALONG THE MS DELTA AND CENTRAL GULF COAST... RESPECTIVELY...AT 12Z SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. AS THIS PROCESS OCCURS...A NEW SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST /E OF GA/. MEANWHILE...GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE SERN STATES WITH THE NEWD TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT RESIDING FROM NWRN FL TO SERN GA SHOULD REMAIN Read more
SPC Nov 21, 2009 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH SRN TX/NWRN GULF OF MEXICO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL DEAMPLIFY SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS. AN OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW AND TRIPLE POINT LOCATED ALONG THE MS DELTA AND CENTRAL GULF COAST... RESPECTIVELY...AT 12Z SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. AS THIS PROCESS OCCURS...A NEW SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST /E OF GA/. MEANWHILE...GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE SERN STATES WITH THE NEWD TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT RESIDING FROM NWRN FL TO SERN GA SHOULD REMAIN Read more
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH SRN TX/NWRN GULF OF MEXICO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL DEAMPLIFY SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS. AN OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW AND TRIPLE POINT LOCATED ALONG THE MS DELTA AND CENTRAL GULF COAST... RESPECTIVELY...AT 12Z SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. AS THIS PROCESS OCCURS...A NEW SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST /E OF GA/. MEANWHILE...GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE SERN STATES WITH THE NEWD TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT RESIDING FROM NWRN FL TO SERN GA SHOULD REMAIN Read more
SPC Nov 21, 2009 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH SRN TX/NWRN GULF OF MEXICO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL DEAMPLIFY SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS. AN OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW AND TRIPLE POINT LOCATED ALONG THE MS DELTA AND CENTRAL GULF COAST... RESPECTIVELY...AT 12Z SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. AS THIS PROCESS OCCURS...A NEW SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST /E OF GA/. MEANWHILE...GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE SERN STATES WITH THE NEWD TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT RESIDING FROM NWRN FL TO SERN GA SHOULD REMAIN Read more
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH SRN TX/NWRN GULF OF MEXICO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL DEAMPLIFY SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS. AN OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW AND TRIPLE POINT LOCATED ALONG THE MS DELTA AND CENTRAL GULF COAST... RESPECTIVELY...AT 12Z SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. AS THIS PROCESS OCCURS...A NEW SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST /E OF GA/. MEANWHILE...GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE SERN STATES WITH THE NEWD TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT RESIDING FROM NWRN FL TO SERN GA SHOULD REMAIN Read more
SPC Nov 21, 2009 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1003 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ......SERN LA... AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...UPPER LOW...OVER SRN TX THIS MORNING...IS FORECAST TO EJECT EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MI SOUTH OF LCH...WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE LOW ESEWD TO FL KEYS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT MOSTLY EWD AND MAY EVEN CROSS THE FAR SERN PORTIONS OF LA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE SURFACE Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1003 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ......SERN LA... AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...UPPER LOW...OVER SRN TX THIS MORNING...IS FORECAST TO EJECT EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MI SOUTH OF LCH...WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE LOW ESEWD TO FL KEYS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT MOSTLY EWD AND MAY EVEN CROSS THE FAR SERN PORTIONS OF LA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE SURFACE Read more
SPC Nov 21, 2009 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1003 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ......SERN LA... AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...UPPER LOW...OVER SRN TX THIS MORNING...IS FORECAST TO EJECT EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MI SOUTH OF LCH...WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE LOW ESEWD TO FL KEYS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT MOSTLY EWD AND MAY EVEN CROSS THE FAR SERN PORTIONS OF LA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE SURFACE Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1003 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ......SERN LA... AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...UPPER LOW...OVER SRN TX THIS MORNING...IS FORECAST TO EJECT EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MI SOUTH OF LCH...WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE LOW ESEWD TO FL KEYS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT MOSTLY EWD AND MAY EVEN CROSS THE FAR SERN PORTIONS OF LA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE SURFACE Read more
SPC Nov 21, 2009 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0620 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY WELL OFFSHORE SWRN LA WILL CONTINUE E TO ENE TO A POSITION STILL S OF MS DELTA TONIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE WARM SECTOR FROM REACHING THE COAST THRU TONIGHT. WHILE LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER TX WILL SPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION ONTO THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS...LACK OF OTHER THAN SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT OVER LAND. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 11/21/2009 Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0620 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY WELL OFFSHORE SWRN LA WILL CONTINUE E TO ENE TO A POSITION STILL S OF MS DELTA TONIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE WARM SECTOR FROM REACHING THE COAST THRU TONIGHT. WHILE LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER TX WILL SPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION ONTO THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS...LACK OF OTHER THAN SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT OVER LAND. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 11/21/2009 Read more
SPC Nov 21, 2009 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0620 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY WELL OFFSHORE SWRN LA WILL CONTINUE E TO ENE TO A POSITION STILL S OF MS DELTA TONIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE WARM SECTOR FROM REACHING THE COAST THRU TONIGHT. WHILE LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER TX WILL SPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION ONTO THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS...LACK OF OTHER THAN SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT OVER LAND. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 11/21/2009 Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0620 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY WELL OFFSHORE SWRN LA WILL CONTINUE E TO ENE TO A POSITION STILL S OF MS DELTA TONIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE WARM SECTOR FROM REACHING THE COAST THRU TONIGHT. WHILE LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER TX WILL SPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION ONTO THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS...LACK OF OTHER THAN SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT OVER LAND. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 11/21/2009 Read more
SPC Nov 21, 2009 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 VALID 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ENERGETIC SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PORTRAY A MODEST AMOUNT OF SPREAD...PARTICULARLY WITH THE CNTRL PLNS SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS EWD TO THE ERN STATES. A FLATTER SOLUTION APPEARS MORE LIKELY PER LATEST EC ENSEMBLE MEANS. AS A RESULT...ROBUST GULF MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CNTRL/SRN GULF BASIN WHERE A MID-WEEK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE MAY YIELD STRONG STORMS WELL-OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED NATIONWIDE. ..RACY.. 11/21/2009 Read more
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 VALID 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ENERGETIC SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PORTRAY A MODEST AMOUNT OF SPREAD...PARTICULARLY WITH THE CNTRL PLNS SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS EWD TO THE ERN STATES. A FLATTER SOLUTION APPEARS MORE LIKELY PER LATEST EC ENSEMBLE MEANS. AS A RESULT...ROBUST GULF MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CNTRL/SRN GULF BASIN WHERE A MID-WEEK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE MAY YIELD STRONG STORMS WELL-OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED NATIONWIDE. ..RACY.. 11/21/2009 Read more
SPC Nov 21, 2009 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 VALID 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ENERGETIC SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PORTRAY A MODEST AMOUNT OF SPREAD...PARTICULARLY WITH THE CNTRL PLNS SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS EWD TO THE ERN STATES. A FLATTER SOLUTION APPEARS MORE LIKELY PER LATEST EC ENSEMBLE MEANS. AS A RESULT...ROBUST GULF MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CNTRL/SRN GULF BASIN WHERE A MID-WEEK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE MAY YIELD STRONG STORMS WELL-OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED NATIONWIDE. ..RACY.. 11/21/2009 Read more
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 VALID 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ENERGETIC SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PORTRAY A MODEST AMOUNT OF SPREAD...PARTICULARLY WITH THE CNTRL PLNS SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS EWD TO THE ERN STATES. A FLATTER SOLUTION APPEARS MORE LIKELY PER LATEST EC ENSEMBLE MEANS. AS A RESULT...ROBUST GULF MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CNTRL/SRN GULF BASIN WHERE A MID-WEEK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE MAY YIELD STRONG STORMS WELL-OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED NATIONWIDE. ..RACY.. 11/21/2009 Read more
SPC Nov 21, 2009 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 VALID 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ENERGETIC SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PORTRAY A MODEST AMOUNT OF SPREAD...PARTICULARLY WITH THE CNTRL PLNS SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS EWD TO THE ERN STATES. A FLATTER SOLUTION APPEARS MORE LIKELY PER LATEST EC ENSEMBLE MEANS. AS A RESULT...ROBUST GULF MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CNTRL/SRN GULF BASIN WHERE A MID-WEEK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE MAY YIELD STRONG STORMS WELL-OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED NATIONWIDE. ..RACY.. 11/21/2009 Read more
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 VALID 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ENERGETIC SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PORTRAY A MODEST AMOUNT OF SPREAD...PARTICULARLY WITH THE CNTRL PLNS SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS EWD TO THE ERN STATES. A FLATTER SOLUTION APPEARS MORE LIKELY PER LATEST EC ENSEMBLE MEANS. AS A RESULT...ROBUST GULF MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CNTRL/SRN GULF BASIN WHERE A MID-WEEK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE MAY YIELD STRONG STORMS WELL-OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED NATIONWIDE. ..RACY.. 11/21/2009 Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0215 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 VALID 231200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES ON MON/D3 WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS. BEHIND THIS TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN WITH COOL WEATHER. UPPER RIDGING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE W COAST ON D4...AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE HIGH TO PRODUCE LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW OVER SRN CA ON TUE/D4 INTO WED/D5. MIN RH IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS WILL BE LIKELY TUE AND WED AFTERNOON...WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WHERE WINDS REMAIN STRONG. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG EVENT...THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS MAY YIELD CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. OFFSHORE Read more
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0215 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 VALID 231200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES ON MON/D3 WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS. BEHIND THIS TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN WITH COOL WEATHER. UPPER RIDGING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE W COAST ON D4...AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE HIGH TO PRODUCE LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW OVER SRN CA ON TUE/D4 INTO WED/D5. MIN RH IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS WILL BE LIKELY TUE AND WED AFTERNOON...WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WHERE WINDS REMAIN STRONG. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG EVENT...THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS MAY YIELD CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. OFFSHORE Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0215 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 VALID 231200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES ON MON/D3 WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS. BEHIND THIS TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN WITH COOL WEATHER. UPPER RIDGING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE W COAST ON D4...AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE HIGH TO PRODUCE LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW OVER SRN CA ON TUE/D4 INTO WED/D5. MIN RH IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS WILL BE LIKELY TUE AND WED AFTERNOON...WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WHERE WINDS REMAIN STRONG. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG EVENT...THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS MAY YIELD CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. OFFSHORE Read more
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0215 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 VALID 231200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES ON MON/D3 WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS. BEHIND THIS TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN WITH COOL WEATHER. UPPER RIDGING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE W COAST ON D4...AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE HIGH TO PRODUCE LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW OVER SRN CA ON TUE/D4 INTO WED/D5. MIN RH IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS WILL BE LIKELY TUE AND WED AFTERNOON...WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WHERE WINDS REMAIN STRONG. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG EVENT...THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS MAY YIELD CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. OFFSHORE Read more